Biden And the Kennedy Conundrum In California

In recent polls in California, third party candidates have shown something of an improvement in California. Well, not in the Assembly, State Senate, House, Senator or other races adherent to California’s jungle primary law. But in the federal Presidential election.

In addition to President Joe Biden (D) and former President Donald Trump (R), there are two major independent candidates running, both oddly enough from California: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West. Rounding out the major third parties are Chase Oliver, who was recently chosen as the Libertarian candidate, and Jill Stein, making her third run for President as part of the Green Party.

Polls have shown the largely expected in California. Namely, Biden out in a commanding lead, Trump at a second, Kennedy getting above a 5%, and the others trailing with a percentage point or two. But odd fluctuations have happened in recent months. A February Emerson College poll found that Biden was sitting at 51% in California, with Trump at 32%, Kennedy at 6%, West at 2%, and Stein at 1%. However, a recent Independent Center poll found something unusual – Kennedy doubling in support. There, Biden is only at 48%, with Trump at 28%, Kennedy at 12% and West and Stein both at 2%. Oliver, the Libertarian candidate, wasn’t included as his party had yet to pick a candidate by poll time. Aggregate polls have Biden at just 49.5% in California as of late May.

National polls show just how unusual California’s fluctuation has been. The 538 aggregate average right now has Trump at 41.3% support despite numerous court cases going on against him, with Biden sitting at 39.9%. Kennedy is at 9.8%, right below what Kennedy needs to get into the debates despite over 70% of the country wanting him in the debates. The Kennedy factor is critical, especially with Trump just ahead in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the three states that broke the blue wall in 2016.

For California, higher than normal third-party support isn’t exactly new. Back in 1992, independent Ross Perot nabbed 20.6% of the vote in California while only getting 18.9% nationwide. In the polarizing 2016 election, things stayed wonky, with Libertarian Gary Johnson got 3.37% of the vote and Green Jill Stein got 1.96% of the vote in California despite coming in only at 3.28% and 1.07% nationally respectively. Things did calm down in 2020, as California’s major third party results closely mirrored the national trends. But the early 2024 polls for California show something of a revival for third party candidates, once again above the national average.

Biden hovering at only 50% in California

Will this mean Joe Biden will lose California? No, unless something huge happens. But will it mean that Biden will have a lower percentage than his 2020 63.5% in California, or Clinton’s 2016 61.7% in the Golden State? That is far more likely. While Libertarians do generally get more Republicans away from the fold, the Green Party have been siphoning more Democrats. Kennedy, meanwhile, has been getting votes from both parties, with different outlets saying which political leaning is going to him more. What is for sure is that Biden could get the lowest percentage of Democratic votes in California since at least the 2024 election, which was the last time the Democrats got below 60% in California. John Kerry that years only got around 54% of the vote in the Golden state that year.

“Biden appears to be headed toward that eventuality,” explained Angie Brown, a presidential election analyst in Washington, D.C., to the Globe. “Biden will win California. That’s not really in question. But just how low his overall percentage will be will be interesting. Biden is very unpopular right now, and Trump has the court cases right now. People are looking for another option, just like 1992. And here we have Kennedy.

“In California, I’m not sure that Biden will go below 55%, but below 60% is very likely. Especially if he makes more blunders on the international scale and Kennedy stays strong. West and Stein and Oliver will likely get 3% or so combined in California. But Kennedy. He’s the wild card. He can  make Biden have the lowest percentage in California for a Democratic candidate in 20 years. For Democrats in California it will sting win, lose, or draw.”

More Californian presidential polls are to come out in June.