Congressman Adam Schiff Wins Feinstein’s Former Senate Seat

Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) defeated former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) in California’s U.S. Senate race on Tuesday, taking over Senator Dianne Feinstein’s seat and replacing interim Senator LaPhonza Butler. Sen. Feinstein passed away September 2023.

Ever since the Primary election in March, Schiff has managed to stay ahead of Garvey in the polls thanks to not only the strong Democratic voting bloc in the state, but with Schiff facing few controversies between March and November. Previous polls, mostly done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. In August, a PPIC poll found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%, with a poll by them last month showing it to be 63%-35%.

Since then, polls reliably gave Schiff a huge lead. A September UC Berkeley poll found the Schiff-Garvey split at 53%-36%. Originally projected to be around 60%-40%, the new changes showed that, with the 11% undecided vote split, it was closer to 58.5%-41.5%, potentially breaking the decades long 60%+ lock Democrats have had in Senate races. That percentage stayed at around that level straight into election day.

This led to last night when Schiff was announced the winner at around 8:00pm PST when the first results came in. Schiff’s winning percentage and projections had him too far in the lead to create any chance for Garvey. Garvey soon came out and congratulated Schiff, while also noting the high number of voters who voted Republican that night.

“I want you to know that, despite the outcome, that when the counting is over, we will have gotten the fourth most number of votes in the country,” said Garvey. “This means that everyone in California does have a voice, and it will only grow louder and louder. I want to sincerely thank you for your support and vote. It was an honor to be your nominee and represent you around this great state of ours, to discuss the issues and ideas that we care about most — the cost of living, fixing our homeless crisis, making our communities safe, improving our public schools and securing our border.”

After the concession call, Schiff then announced victory.

“I am committed to taking on the big fights to protect our freedoms and to protect our democracy,” noted Schiff. “California will continue to be at the forefront of progress, the bulwark of democracy, the champion of innovation and the protector of our rights and freedoms.”

On X, he added, “California — here’s my promise: You can count on me to find ways to work together and deliver for the Golden State. And to stand tall in defense of our democracy and our freedom.”

However, Schiff’s victory wasn’t the total landslide that some had expected. When he declared victory last night, Schiff had around 59% of the votes. As of Wednesday afternoon, the numbers stand at Schiff with 5,468,368 votes and Garvey with 4,080,569 votes with 57% of the vote in. Or, in percentages, 57.3% to 42.7%, with Garvey actually currently overperforming.  Last week, Garvey had said he was within single digits of Schiff. As it turns out he may have been right, dependent on how the votes continue to fall in.

No matter where Garvey falls, his performance is going to be a new bar for GOP candidates. Even if he dips a few points, Garvey’s performance will have been the best for a GOP Senate candidate in California since Carly Fiorina got 42% of the vote in 2010. Should Garvey stay on track where he is now, it will have been the best performance since 1998 when Matt Fong got 43% of the vote. Should he improve even more, much like how Trump crept up in votes during the night, then it may mean the best performance since Michael Huffington with 44% in 1994 or even Pete Wilson in 1988 when he won with 52%. Right now, Garvey can fall anywhere on this scale, with the worst case scenario being the best GOP candidate in 14 years.

“Schiff won, but the stronger than expected number of GOP voters coming out had the sort of a rising tide makes all the boats go up sort of effect,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California. “A lot of Latinos voted for Garvey, a lot of Trump down balloters voted Garvey, and the centrists who didn’t like Schiff helped Garvey. Garvey also may have been helped by the Dodgers winning the World Series, with him being a former Dodgers player.

“We’ve all been saying that he needed to get at least 40% to show some kind of improvement from the GOP here. Well, now we are wondering just how high this would go. He was just above 40% last night, and this morning, he was approaching 43%. We know Schiff won, but he may not be happy by how much it seems he has won by now. This should be really encouraging for Republicans for future Senate races. They’ve proven to have gotten back to at least 90’s numbers now, with a lot more voters coming out for them like Garvey even noted.”

Final results of the Senate race are expected to come out in the coming weeks.