Final IGS Poll Of the Election 2024 Shows Harris Falling by 2 Points In California Against Trump

According to the final UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll before the election released on Friday, Vice resident Kamala Harris has been found to have gone down slightly in the polls, with former President Donald Trump remaining steady from before in a 57%-35% race

Previous polls before Harris became the presumptive nominee on the ticket showed a much closer race in California. While a Democratic victory was never in doubt in California, with Biden always keeping a around a 20+ point lead, polls in June and July began projecting one of the closest races for California between a Democrat and Republican in decades. Biden’s poor debate performance, questions over his health, growing calls for him to drop out of the race, and Trump’s assassination attempt brought a shift in California and nationwide. The last polls with Biden on the ticket in California had him only with 18 and 17 point leads, dropping a point in the polls in California every 5-7 days. Had that rate continued, California could have gone down a shade of blue for the first time since the 90’s.

However, Biden dropped out, leading to Harris as the new nominee. Armed with a California background and keeping the momentum going with a new VP pick, Harris rapidly gained ground on Trump. Nationally, Trump went from several points ahead of Biden, to, on aggregate, three points behind Harris. In California, with Harris at home state advantage, it was even more staggering. By August, Harris was leading Trump 59% to 34%, with Harris up 60% to 34% by September following the second Presidential debate.

In Late September September and October, things took another turn. With the Harris nomination honeymoon over and debate momentum waning, Harris began to fall in most states, including California. The UC Berkeley IGS poll at the beginning of October was showing Harris to be as low as 57%, while the Emerson poll showed her latest California numbers at 59% Harris and 35% Trump, with Trump overall slightly improving thanks in part to recent gains with the Latino vote. Overall, Trump was also one point higher than he was in early August when Harris was still amidst her early entrance bump in support.

The final UC Berkeley IGS poll this election season released on Friday and found that Harris has tumbled back to 57% support, with Trump remaining steady at 35%, narrowing it to only a 22 point lead. Nationally, aggregate polling only has Harris up ahead of Trump by only 1.2 points, with California’s latest results helping echo the race getting closer. In terms of electoral votes, Trump now has a slight edge in the probabilities, albeit with California still being a lock for Democrats.

Harris loses significant support of Asians, Latinos

When broken down by region, the poll showed that Harris has at least an 8 point lead in every part of California except the San Joaquin Valley, where Trump leads Harris 55%-39%, and Orange County, with the Harris ticket only a single point ahead 46%-45%. The support amongst Latinos and Asian Americans was also low for Harris. While Biden got around 75% support from both groups in 2020, the poll found that only 57% of Latinos and 56% of Asians supported Harris now.

“The final pre-election Berkeley IGS Poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris maintaining a comfortable lead over Donald Trump in her home state in next week’s presidential election,” said IGS Director Mark DiCamillo on Friday. “The poll, completed one week before Election Day, finds the Democratic ticket of Harris and Tim Walz supported by 57%,while the Trump -J.D. Vance GOP ticket receives35%. While impressive, Harris’s lead does not match the victory margin that President Joe Biden received four years ago when he carried the state by 29points.One reason for this is that Harris is now receiving significantly less support from the state’s Latino and Asian American voters than Biden did in 2020. The declines are particularly striking among male Latino and Asian American voters, only about half of whom are now backing Harris.”

The poll also had 5% of voters being undecided and 3% voting third party. With undecided voters factored in, Harris is at 60% in California, with Trump at 38%, putting him above his 34% performance in California in 2020 and well above his 31% he got in California against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He also surpasses Mitt Romney’s 37% total he got in the state in 2012, as well as John McCain’s 37% in 2008, meaning Trump’s 2024 final percentage in California is on track to be the highest percentage for a Republican since 2004, when George Bush got 44% of the vote in California.

“While Harris has strong black, white, and Asian voting blocs in California, she forgot about the critical Latino vote,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Friday. “She was probably assuming that, since Biden got so many, she would to. Many also thought they would hold because of where immigration and deportation were on the party platform. But it did not happen. Trump won many over instead.

“38% of the vote seems like an odd amount to cheer for, but for the GOP, it is showing the party coming back slowly in the state. It’s also what is keeping many House races close. And that’s only if the polls hold. If those margins of error break down like they did in 2016 in so many states, Trump may have 40% in California, something extremely embarrassing in Harris’ home state. And it is already embarrassing for her now that Clinton and Biden are assured to have had more support than her in the state.”