California State Capitol on March 11, 2022. (Photo: Kevin Sanders for California Globe).
Jenner, Hilton, Dahle And More: What The 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Race Will Look Like This Year
Republicans look for major candidates in the race for Governor
By Evan Symon, January 3, 2025 7:04 am
For well over a year, prominent Democrats have continued to throw their hat in the ring for the 2026 Gubernatorial election, or heavily teased that they’ll enter it.
Democratic gubernatorial candidates have been slowly trickling into the race since April 2023 when Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis became the first major candidate to declare her intent to run a full three and a half years before the election. Since then, on the Democratic side, she has been joined by six others, including the major candidates of State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, Senator Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), Former State Controller Betty Yee, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Speculative Democratic candidates have also been grabbing headlines throughout 2024, with Vice President Kamala Harris and Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) being highlighted as two favorites. Attorney General Rob Bonta, 2022 L.A. Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Senator Laphonza Butler and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass have all also been named.
But it has largely been the Porter and Harris show, especially after the November election when they both became lame ducks. In particular, Porter won a USC poll, showing her to be by far the best selection for the Dems, while Harris won a Berkeley poll. In recent weeks, aides close to Harris have said that she is split on on running for Governor, while Republicans have come out to say that she would have no chance at a gubernatorial run.
That is the Democrats situation, as of this week. A lot of candidates with bases of support, several possible candidates with even larger bases of support, and a primary that would splinter votes in so many directions. They’re also entering a time of change in California.
Republicans had one of their best election years in recent memory in California in 2024. Registered Republican voters are at a high not seen in decades despite a falling population. Trump managed to get the highest vote percentage for a GOP presidential candidate in California since 2004. The state Senate and Assembly saw GOP gains. A Republican in every way but current party affiliation even managed to become DA of Los Angeles County, something that only 4 years ago could have been the headline in an Onion article. In short, it’s a bad time for the Democrats to have so many candidates in one race.
But, speaking of the GOP, the have the opposite problem. Currently, they have two candidates, Vice President of Zacky Farms Leo Zacky and business consultant Sharifah Hardie. Neither really have the wide appeal a major candidate usually has, especially when up against major Democrats. That leaves the party in 2025 looking for the right candidate to not only steam ahead in the June 2026 primary, but also bring about a possible dark horse victory in November 2026.
A big year for the GOP in 2025
Possible candidates have been few so far, but also intriguing. State Senator and 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle (R-Bieber), Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, former Olympian and 2021 Gubernatorial candidate Caitlyn Jenner, and Fox New Host and former advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron Steve Hilton have all expressed interest. As Steve Garvey proved in the Senate race last year, a big name can actually bring in voters, as he had the highest GOP vote total for a Republican Senate candidate in California since 2010. And let’s not forget Arnold Schwarzenegger who won as a Republican in the 2003 Governor recall race, but also won reelection in 2006.
However, for now, that is the GOP stable of candidates, both declared and speculative. The CAGOP won’t let this upswing of Republican support go to waste. Latino voters are still increasing Republican numbers, as is the Fix California movement. In two years there are going to be a lot more Republican voters than there are now, especially with the midterms approaching. So they are going to want a chief candidate who won’t divide the party like the Democrats are doing, and be popular enough to make the race close. It’s not that tall of an order, and has been done before.
And that is the question for 2025. Who will be the GOP candidate or candidates?
“The GOP needs to be a bit more hands on in selecting candidates for the primary,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Thursday. “Celebrities, women, Latinos, LGBT, immigrant. They need to do get a list and have candidates who fit into multiple demographics and, if possible, be not who the Democrats choose.
“It isn’t impossible for a Republican to win the 2026 election for Governor here, as things stand now. But we need to see some big name candidates come out for them this year. Maybe get the Trump or Musk seal of approval. They have momentum right now and they need to get the right candidates to take advantage of it. People like Jenner and Hilton are exciting, but they need a bigger oomph right now too. If they get, say, one of their prominent Latino Congressional members to run for example, or say a woman like Michelle Steel, the Democrats are going to scramble even more.
“Realistically the Democrats are most likely going to win. But the GOP has a chance to pull this off. There is a road for that to happen. That’s why we’re seeing Harris and Porter be mentioned more and more. They want a for sure victory.”
More candidate announcements are expected soon.
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I ask, how is a celebrity such as Bruce (Caitlyn) Jenner qualified to be governor?
I respect that he worked hard as a young man to earn gold medals. How does that translate to governing a state with big issues, a state that is cratering! Jenner has made some poor decisions in his life. He does not instill confidence for this voter. How about a Mayor or County Supervisor that stood up to the crazy diktats! Someone like the Mayor of El Cajon, Bill Wells.. He has had to budget and work with city budgets and navigate the craziness coming out of Sacramento.
It is becoming more evident the average voter could care less what a celebrity thinks about politics. Arnold Schwarzenegger did not work out so well!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-m-a-blue-state-mayor-and-the-future-of-homelessness-scares-me/ar-AA1wF0Wh
I remember this El Cajon Mayor, Bill Wells. The Usual Suspects (Gavin Newsom, Rob Bonta, and the since-shamed S.D. Supervisor Nathan Fletcher) were trying to dump homeless sex offenders at a very high rate into the town’s hotels and motels. You know, because it was a very nice Republican area and a well-run town just ripe for punishment by these Usual Suspects (sort of like Huntington Beach). Katy Grimes covered the horrible result of this homeless sex-offender dumping in March, 2023:
“California Homeless Voucher Scheme: 2 Sex Offenders Accused of Raping Minor Girls at El Cajon Motel”
https://californiaglobe.com/fl/ca-homeless-voucher-scheme-2-sex-offenders-accused-of-raping-minor-girls-at-el-cajon-motel/
Here is old audio of the John & Ken Show, KFI-AM 640, to further talk about the incident. Mayor Bill Wells went up against the power players to his great credit. Begin listening at the 18:20 marker:
https://omny.fm/shows/john-and-ken-on-demand/john-ken-show-hour-1-03-22-1
Would almost prefer that someone like Bill Wells stay in local office because he does such a good job in that realm. If he had more name recognition maybe he could have a shot at governor. Who knows if he would even want the job, though — a lot of people don’t, I’ll bet.
Thank you for the link, Cali Girl.
P.S. Nathan Fletcher’s disappearance from CA politics (under a cloud of scandal) made me realize we never know what will happen, which is always a good thing to remember. Fletcher was married to Lorena Gonzalez and was apparently being groomed to be CA governor at the time he “fell.”
“The CAGOP won’t let this upswing of Republican support go to waste.” If history is any guide, this is exactly what the CAGOP will do, arrange the dining room while clinically insane democrats cook the meal. First thing to do is boot Jessica Patterson and get rid of proxy voting in the organization – if you’re too lazy to vote, your vote isn’t used by special interest delegates that create so much harm to “the cause.” Instead of dictating to the central commities, let the grass roots have a voice. And, with the advantage that the democrats have with large urban populations in the state and the screwballs they elect, the CAGOP needs to add the words “ballot initiative” to their political vocabulary. As it has been, the CAGOP rarely takes advantage of an obvious opportunity it could more easily bungle. Jumping on the identity politics bandwagon is a large part of the problem: we should be far more concerned with the economy, public safety and real education rather than who does what with whom, pigmentation, plumbing, or who has the most artificial body parts altered, removed or added. In the real world, exactly no one is impressed by pandering.
I admit have a soft spot for Sen Brian Dahle, a Republican, who ran for Governor in 2022, and made a pretty darn decent showing as I recall, all things considered, against the inevitable election cheating that we can assume is always there, because our state officials haven’t lifted a finger to return us to normal voting procedures, which you’d think they’d do, if only to demonstrate that they want us to have “confidence in our elections” and that they are not cheating. Not holding my breath for that, of course, but I AM hoping the incoming Trump Admin can intervene and return CA to sanity. But I digress….
I know Dahle is not perfect, who is, but I like his rural-ish story, the family farms, the seed business, the likeable large helpful-in-the-business family, and that his wife is also an elected legislator, but not a husband-and-wife duo like Rob and Mia. 🙂 That agricultural story alone is central to California, because agriculture should be returned to prominence in California, we feed the world after all, or once did, as opposed to the cold alienating modern S.F. area and wacky Silicon Valley tech sector story that has had the focus in the Gov Gruesome era. And considering Dahle has already (recently) run for governor, and is thus familiar to CA voters, and is a decent person and a decent Republican, I prefer him as a candidate above all other possible Repubs named above until someone makes a good argument that he should NOT be a candidate, which I would like to hear if there is one.
As for the Dems who have announced already, there is not a chance in hell that we will have another Democrat governor. Can’t you feel it? It’s not going to happen. But Word-Salad Kammy should definitely run, and I think we should encourage it, so she can be squashed by “Any Republican.”