Latest Senate Poll Shows Garvey 17 Points Behind Schiff In Slight Improvement

According to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released on Friday, Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) continues his sizeable lead over former baseball star Steve Garvey 53% to 36%, with Garvey improving by 3 points since the last IGS poll in August.

Previous polls, mostly done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), have found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. In August, a PPIC poll found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%, with a poll by them last month showing it to be 63%-35%.

However, a UC Berkeley poll released in early August was shown to be far more realistic, with a large number of Californians still undecided in the race. In it, Schiff had only 53% of the vote, Garvey 33% and the rest being undecided. Without undecided voters, the tally was closer to Schiff 60%-Garvey 40%. An Emerson College poll in August also found that Schiff only gained a few more percentage points of votes, coming in to a 55% to 33% total. Without undecided voters the tally, with margin of error, was Schiff with 59%-61% and Garvey with 39%-41%.

The latest IGS poll on Friday found that, in late September, Garvey had shown late election season gains, with the Schiff-Garvey split now being at 53%-36%. Originally projected to be around 60%-40%, the new changes show that, with the 11% undecided vote split, it is now closer to 58.5%-41.5%, potentially breaking the decades long 60%+ lock Democrats have had in Senate races.

While both candidates both strongly have party and ideological voters in their favor, middle-of-the road voters proved to be more on Schiff’s side. Moderate voters tend to support Schiff 49% to 32%, with 19% undecided. Meanwhile, no party preference voters are 48% to 35% with 17% undecided.

When it comes to regions, Schiff is winning in Los Angeles, the Bay Area, San Diego, and the Central Coast, with double digit leads in all four. Garvey and Schiff are tied in two regions, Orange County and the North Coast Sierras, with Garvey having improved since the last poll there in both. Finally, Garvey has large leads in both the Central Valley and Inland Empire.

A surge of Latino support for Garvey

A big gain for Garvey came in the form of Latino voters. In August, Latino voters in California were at a 47%-32% split for Schiff, compared to 57%-38% on white voters. But in today’s poll, conducted in late September, the Latino vote was 47%-37%, compared to the white vote of 54%-39%. Along with a 5% gain for Garvey amongst Asian voters, the changes show that Garvey’s marketing towards Latino voters has been working. And with a Trump rally in Coachella this weekend aimed at Latino voters, Garvey speaking more on Latino voters at the Senate forum earlier this week, as well as pushing Spanish language ads this month, it’s possible that Garvey can make the Latino vote count a lot more closer than many predicted. Being within 10 points for that demographic at the end of September was unexpected by many.

Overall, the IGS found that Schiff is still going to win in November, albeit with increased issues at getting support in a few key areas.

IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora explained on Friday that “The strong support for Schiff suggests that his toughest race was really in the Spring, when he won out against the other Democratic contenders. Still, shoring up more support in the Central Valley and in parts of Southern California beyond Los Angeles County should be a concern as he heads into November.”

However, others have begun readjusting projected totals for the election, showing the final result much less in Schiff’s favor than previously estimated.

Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, added that “Garvey is now at 36% while Schiff stagnated at 53%. Those totals don’t sound so good, but look at the massive gains Garvey made with Hispanic and Asian voters in less than two months, not to mention a few more points from white voters. Garvey has made it a point to point out his connections to the Latino community, including his close relationship with former Dodger player Fernando Valenzuela. He’s closer in Los Angeles and San Diego because of that than Schiff would like. And he just tied up Orange County and the North Coast.

“Schiff is still going to win, but these gains by Garvey are showing that it is going to be a lot closer than expected. Your outlet said back in July that the race was closer than people thought? Well it’s really beginning to show now. And there are some who have just been waiting for a Trump rally or something where Latino and white supporters start fighting or something, to break this Latino surge. But, as we’ve been seeing, there’s really no issue fight amongst them. More and more Latinos are wanting tougher border restrictions. At rallies, we had some pollsters even say that the only main source of contention was when someone complained of someone else speaking Spanish. That’s it, and that happens during Democratic rallies too. And for Republican ones, it was pretty much forgotten once issues came up and they saw how much on the same page they were.

That’s why the Senate race in California is, while still a huge lead for Schiff, is getting closer and now projected to be a well under 60% finish for Garvey. And we saw that in the poll today.”

Final Senate polls are expected in late October and early November.