Nate Silver Moves Nevada Governor’s Race to ‘Likely R’ as Lombardo Builds Momentum

Governor Joe Lombardo continues to build momentum in his re-election campaign as his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford, stumbles toward November.

As of Wednesday, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin rated the Nevada governor’s race “Likely R,” an upgrade from the previous “Leans R.” The shift follows a string of polls showing Lombardo’s lead widening and a series of controversies that have dogged Ford. 

Multiple surveys this summer have shown Ford trailing by growing margins. In early August, three Republican-aligned polls put Lombardo ahead by 7, 9, and 12 points. Broader forecasting models have tracked a similar movement: Lombardo’s projected chance of winning has risen as Ford’s campaign has struggled to close the gap.

 Ford’s problems extend beyond the numbers. 

The Democratic nominee faces accusations that he ran television ads using outdated 2018 law enforcement footage to imply current endorsements he does not have. The Las Vegas Police Protective Association issued a cease-and-desist and has endorsed Lombardo. 

Ford also faces a formal ethics complaint over special-interest-funded travel, including trips critics say pulled him away from Nevada duties for hundreds of days since taking office. 

National Democrats have shown little appetite to pour late money into a race that looks increasingly out of reach. 

Lombardo, the former Clark County sheriff who unseated Democrat Steve Sisolak in 2022, has spent the cycle emphasizing results over rhetoric. 

Nevada led the nation in job growth over a recent 12-month period, accounting for roughly 12 percent of new U.S. jobs despite having about 1 percent of the population. The governor’s office cites more than $5–6 billion in new private investment, nearly 100,000 jobs, a 15 percent cut in the Modified Business Tax, and progress on school choice and attainable housing. 

A “Democrats for Lombardo” coalition of more than 120 registered Democrats from business, labor, and local government has endorsed his re-election. 

Lombardo has framed the choice as keeping Nevada from becoming California: higher taxes, heavier regulation, and weaker public safety. Ford, by contrast, has pledged to repeal the state’s 1953 right-to-work law on day one, co-sponsored earlier tax-break legislation he now criticizes, and drawn support from national progressive figures including California Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

Voter registration in Nevada flipped to a narrow Republican edge for the first time since 2007, aided by in-migration from California. 

With two months until Election Day, Lombardo enters September with a fundraising advantage, a strengthening economy, and a forecast that now treats his re-election as the probable outcome rather than a toss-up. 

Ford still has time, but the combination of polling, lackluster fundraising, scandals, and an incumbent record that even some prominent Democrats have chosen not to back has put the race on a different trajectory than it occupied earlier this year.