Three New Polls Show Lombardo Expanding Lead Over Ford in Nevada Governor’s Race

Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo is pulling ahead of Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford in the race for a second term, according to three new surveys from Republican-affiliated pollsters released today. The findings mark a shift from earlier public surveys this cycle that painted a closer contest.

The polls, conducted among likely voters between late June and late July, show Lombardo leading by margins of 9, 12, and 7 points. Public Opinion Strategies found Lombardo at 51 percent to Ford’s 42 percent in a survey fielded June 27-29. Grassroots Targeting reported Lombardo at 52 percent to Ford’s 40 percent in fieldwork from July 8-16. The Tarrance Group, a longtime Republican polling firm with a track record in Nevada, showed Lombardo at 50 percent to Ford’s 43 percent in a July 25-29 survey.

“These results show clear movement in the race toward Governor Lombardo as we get closer to November,” said Better Nevada PAC spokesman John Burke. “The message from Nevada voters is clear: they want to see him continue to fight for more jobs, more attainable housing, and more opportunities for our kids. They don’t want Aaron Ford or his costly California agenda.”

Lombardo, the former Clark County sheriff elected in 2022 by flipping the governorship from Democrat Steve Sisolak, has emphasized economic results throughout his tenure. 

As California Globe reported in June, Nevada led the nation in year-over-year job growth under Lombardo, accounting for a disproportionate share of new jobs nationwide while average hourly earnings also rose rapidly. The governor has pointed to more than 100,000 jobs created since he took office, over $6 billion in new private investment, and efforts to cut regulations and lower the Modified Business Tax.

That record has drawn bipartisan notice. In early July, California Globe covered the launch of “Democrats for Lombardo,” a coalition of more than 120 registered Democrats from business, labor, education, and local government who endorsed the Republican’s reelection. Chaired by longtime Nevada business leader David Goldwater and including former labor and elected officials, the group cited Lombardo’s focus on results over partisanship on issues including housing, education, and public safety.

Ford, who secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary, has centered his campaign on affordability and criticism of what he calls the “Lombardo-Trump economy.” Democratic-aligned polling earlier this summer showed the race essentially tied. Ford has also drawn national progressive support, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Texas Rep. Jasmine Crocket, and contributions linked to the Soros family, as previously detailed by California Globe.

Lombardo’s allies have maintained a significant financial edge. Better Nevada PAC and related groups have reserved or spent tens of millions on advertising, far outpacing Democratic spending so far.

The governor continues to highlight public safety, education reforms, and opposition to policies he associates with neighboring California’s higher costs and regulatory burdens.

With roughly three months until Election Day on November 3, the new surveys suggest momentum for the incumbent. Nevada remains a closely watched battleground, having voted for Donald Trump in 2024 by a narrow margin after years as a swing state. 

Voters will decide whether Lombardo’s record on jobs and growth outweighs Ford’s recent attacks on cost-of-living issues and his focus on national politics.