Newsom Shows a Distant Fifth Place in 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidate Polling

According to new aggregate polling results this week, based off a new spate of nationwide polling, former Vice President and former California Senator Kamala Harris is leading other candidates with 27.1% support, while California Governor Gavin Newsom trails in a distant fifth place with 7% support.

The new results, based off of around a dozen polls from the last two months, also have former Secretary of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at second place with 16.1% support, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with 12.9%, and Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) at 8.6%. Until recently, Governor Newsom was in second place and was widely seen as Harris’ main competitor in 2028. Early state polling amongst Democrats in California even pegged him winning the state with a strong 27% of support in the Golden State.

Harris has managed to keep her large lead amongst Democrats even with a possible run for Governor in 2026 currently being mulled over. While she has waned in the polls there in the past few months, she currently leads all other candidates in terms of support. Those close to Harris have acknowledged that she will run for one or the other, with her decision in running for Governor coming in the summer of this year being a huge announcement that will drastically alter both races.

However, Newsom doesn’t have that luxury. Due to be term-limited out next year, Newsom has long been planning a 2028 run for the White House. At one point, he was the heavy favorite. But with Harris becoming the Democratic nominee over Newsom last year, Newsom making Democrats angry over the reversal of positions like transgender athletes, and Newsom trying to move closer to the right through his latest podcast that has not won over conservatives, the Governor’s stock has been falling. According to a poll earlier this month, nearly 60% of Californian voters do not want him to run for President.

This fall from grace was seen in aggregate presidential polling. Only 2 months ago he was second place only behind Harris. Now he is fifth place, with his best case scenario increasingly being a cabinet position.

Newsom falling

For the GOP, there isn’t nearly as much uncertainty. Vice President JD Vance currently leads with 49% support, with the next closest, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, barely cracking 10% support. While there is still three and a half years to go until the 2028 election, the early polls have shown that the GOP nominee is Vance’s to lose. But for the Democrats, it’s not so simple. And the California candidates are a large blame in that. Their support has fluctuated wildly, while other candidates, including Buttigieg and AOC, have shown slow but steady gains.

Also not helping Newsom is his signature 2035 gas powered car ban mandate now being challenged federally, and continuing blame for the January wildfires in Los Angeles, and the Governor once again facing a recall challenge.

“The results are not too surprising considering given Newsom’s approval/disapproval rating in this poll—which is significantly lower than his 42 percent-40 percent approval/disapproval rating in a February poll from Emerson,” said Emerson College Polling senior director Matt Taglia of his popularity earlier this month. “There’s clearly something driving negative sentiment. President Trump has seen a similar decline in job approval between these two California polls as well.

“Governor Newsom obviously cannot control all of these factors directly, but with voters looking for someone to blame, he and the president are natural targets. With all of this in mind, it’s no surprise there’s limited appetite in California for Newsom as a presidential candidate. That could easily change as his tenure as governor comes to a close, and as the Trump administration continues to push its policy agenda. His response to the administration, and to issues closer to home, will likely drive sentiment towards him in the state.”

Harris currently leads both the 2026 California Gubernatorial polls and the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee polls by double digits, despite not being a declared candidate in either.