Female hand casts a ballot as she votes for the local elections at a polling station. (Photo: Damir Sencar/Shutterstock)
Poll: Proposition 50 Leading By a Hefty 22-point Margin One Week Before the Election
A final pre-election survey conducted by Berkeley IGS finds 60 percent of likely California voting Yes on Proposition 50, while just 38 percent are voting No
By Megan Barth, October 31, 2025 11:04 am
A final pre-election survey conducted by Berkeley IGS (see below) finds 60 percent of Californian’s likely voters voting Yes on Proposition 50, while just 38 percent are voting No. The survey also reveals that the results are highly partisan with 93 percent of Democrats supporting Governor Gavin Newsom’s ~$300 million gerrymandering proposition, with 91 percent of Republicans voting against it.
As early voting is underway, the poll indicates that the passage of Prop 50 is likely with a two-to-one lead among those who were surveyed and had already voted by mail or intend to drop their ballot in a ballot drop box or at a voting center.
Yet, on election day November 4, the No votes dominate among the respondents with 70 percent of election day votes intending to vote No, compared to 28 percent intending to vote Yes.
Nearly three quarters of likely voters have heard “a great deal” and are aware of Prop 50, with a majority of respondents agreeing that the ballot measure needs to pass in order to “help the Democratic Party win back control of the House of Representatives in order to stand up to President Trump’s taking greater control of the government and stop Trump’s attempt to rig next year’s elections.”
The likely voters who were surveyed view their opposition to the measure quite differently, with no mention of Trump in their No vote. They believe that Prop 50 is an attempt by Democratic leaders to “further diminish the influence of the Republican Party in the state, that politicians cannot be trusted to give back their power to draw district lines should Prop 50 pass, that it goes against the will of voters who approved having district lines drawn by an independent commission, and that it will divide local communities and reduce local voters’ say over who represents them in Congress.”
Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies co-director Eric Schickler states, “The results suggest that Democrats have succeeded in framing the debate surrounding the proposition around support or in opposition to President Trump and national Republicans, rather than about voters’ more general preference for nonpartisan redistricting.”
The survey of nearly 9,000 likely voters was conducted online in both English and Spanish.
Prop 50 poll
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Well, of course it’s going to pass. We have seen election after election that 60% of voters in this state are programmed NPCs who will do whatever the Democrat Party apparatus command them to do even when it goes against their own self-interest. Ultimately, this won’t matter at the national level. Texas’s new congressional maps have already passed court challenges while the ball it still out on this one. Even if it does go into effect, every other red state is already prepared to respond in kind and there are more Red states than there are Blue states so all that will happen is a redistricting arms race.
Polls like these are psychological warfare just like the fake Madmani campaign. I would bet that Obama and his fraud machine are behind both campaigns.
CW, I’m with you. It’s supposed to make us think “it’s over, I give up,” when it’s NOT over and the last thing anyone should be doing is giving up. By the way, did you know the NYC election is using ranked-choice voting? I did not until yesterday, when I heard it from trusted pollster Trafalgar’s founder Robert Cahaly. Good luck to them…………..
I doubt it. Not without some “help”! But I guess we’ll see!
Leave it to the now-sketchy IGS Berkeley poll to release this at a peak time. It is clearly intended to dispirit voters who would be doing the right thing in rejecting this horrible proposition. There have been so many of these polls! Doesn’t that fact alone tell us that this is not a legitimate survey of voters but there are ulterior motives afoot?
I don’t trust this poll nor this pollster anymore.
Also, if you haven’t yet, get your NO on PROP 50 ballot in the mail ASAP.
“The survey of nearly 9,000 likely voters was conducted online in both English and Spanish.”
What percentage of those were illegal aliens?
Well that’s a “tell,” isn’t it. Or could be!
Do not let Democrats steal the 2025 House elections.
Newsom is terrified SCOTUS will toss out his dozens of racially-based majority-minority rotten borough voting districts, now owned by the Democrats.
Prop 50 is his preemptive strike to redraw new lines in his favor, once he loses all the fake majority-minority districts. These fake population-based voting districts is what he calls “democracy’. Stuffed full of illegals.
Typo – Don’t let Newsom steal the 2026 House elections.
The polls in California are just as rigged as the elections?
Berkeley?
Sampling bias…
irrelevant and inaccurate….
Vote NO ON 50
NO MORE NEWSOM
NO MORE OBAMA
The following states have gerrymandered their voting districts so much they have NO Republican Representatives in Congress: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Hawaii, and Delaware.
California Democrats, “How dare Texas change their voting districts to reduce (not eliminate) Democrat Representatives when ordered by the court to redraw district lines.”