Schiff, Garvey Lead U.S. Senate Race In Latest Poll

According to the final Emerson College primary poll released on Thursday, Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) continues his massive lead in the U.S. Senate Primary election, with former professional baseball star Steve Garvey (R) currently three points ahead of Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for second place.

In total, Schiff currently is leading with 28% of the total vote. Garvey is second with 20%, over both Porter with 17% and Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA) with 8%. Three candidates are tied with a distant 5th place with 2% of the vote: Businessman James Bradley (R), TV Anchorwoman Christina Pascucci (D), and lawyer Eric Early (R). A total of 17% are also currently undecided.

When undecided voter lean is factored in, the race gets somewhat tighter. The Emerson poll found that with the leaning voters included in, Schiff is out ahead with 32%, Garvey 22%, Porter 20%, and Lee moving up above the 10 percent threshold to 11%.

CALIFORNIA POLL with @CaliforniaICP & @thehill

Schiff 28%
Garvey 20%
Porter 17%
Lee 8%
17% undecided

With undecideds:
Schiff 32%
Garvey 22%
Porter 20%
Lee 11%https://t.co/8UBgWjv9nz pic.twitter.com/X3L2qeUR5a

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) February 29, 2024

“Both Garvey and Porter are within the poll’s margin of error for second place in a race where a top-two finish would place them on the ballot in November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Among those who have already voted, 47% supported Schiff, 19% Porter, 18% Garvey, and 10% Lee. Among those who have yet to vote but are likely to do so, 30% support Schiff, 23% Garvey, and 20% Porter.”

When broken down by issue, it becomes more clear why Schiff and Garvey are doing better than Porter and Lee. When asked, regardless of vote, which candidate would do the best on combatting crime, Schiff led with 33%, followed by Garvey with 25% and Porter with 19%. On homelessness, Schiff led with 27%, with Garvey a close second with 25% and Porter with 24%. While Porter led the abortion question, Schiff and Garvey proceeded to beat Porter substantially on all other issues like immigration and the Israel-Hamas war.

The party vote was also very polarizing with candidates. Democrats preferred to vote Schiff with 47% pulling for him, while Garvey had the majority of GOP voters. However, the crucial independent voter bloc seemed to be most like a bellwether on how voters were feeling. In total, 27% of independents are in favor of Schiff, 24% favor Garvey, and only 20% are in support of Porter.

When compared to recent polls, both Schiff and Lee continue to be for-sure 1st place and 4th place victors. With the February PPIC poll, the early February Emerson poll, the WPA poll, and the latest Emerson poll shown side by side, Schiff has a rise of 24%-28%-27%-28% compared to Lee’s 10%-9%-10%-8% fluctuation. However, the polls show that it will be a Garvey-Porter dogfight on Tuesday. Garvey has a staggered 18%-22%-24%-20% level of support, with Porter just below with a jumpy 19%-16%-15%-17% support level. When compared to the early February Emerson poll has gone down 2 points with Porter going up by 1. Yet, despite this, Garvey maintains a statistical lead heading into the final few days of the primary campaign.

Schiff/Garvey/Porter

“In case you haven’t turned on the TV or opened up a video on the internet in the past few weeks, Porter and Schiff ads are everywhere,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Thursday. “Both campaigns, especially Porter, did not want to be spending this much money on the primary, but Garvey forced their hand. Porter is desperately trying to play catch up. And it is working to a degree. When you look at these polls, Porter has chipped away at Garvey’s lead somewhat. She’s now within the margin of error.”

“And, everyone has been saying it. This was supposed to be a Schiff-Porter race in November. Porter left the House for this. And now, with that  looking like it might just be taken away, she has been hitting the gas. They didn’t expect Garvey to start off so well in October, they didn’t expect him to start overtaking Lee in the polls in December, they didn’t expect him to start tying with her last month, and they didn’t expect him to win the second debate. Porter has dumped a ton of money in ads and fought back at the third debate, but even after giving all that, she is still three points behind Garvey, who has had one of the most easy going primary campaigns you’d ever see.

“For Porter, this newest poll is a mixed blessing. She is closer now to Garvey, but all signs point to undecideds and independents still favoring Garvey over her. If younger people really come out, then Porter may have an edge. But if GOP voters come out en masse, especially with a presidential primary that still has a major challenger to Trump still in play, then Garvey could see that go his way. Democratic early voters and those going by mail also might have been more inclined to vote Lee than Porter, so that is a factor too.

“But Porter is screwed either way. Garvey beats her, she’s left without an elected office come 2025 with this as a black mark on her record. She beats Garvey somehow, it means she has spent a ton of her war chest early on and still will most likely be out of an office in 2025, as the majority of Republicans would rather have Schiff than Porter if that vote ever came up. A conservative colleague of mine said in that scenario it would be like voting between either getting hit by a train or falling off a cliff to many on the right, but that’s just where the figures are there. A lesser of two evils vote.”

“The takeaway from this poll is that, while Porter has crept up a bit, Garvey is still more likely to win second place on Tuesday. He has a lot more going for him and is still edging her out in support even with that undecided voter lean. But nothing is for sure between the two.”

The primary vote is due to be held on Tuesday, March 5th.