U.S. Congressman Adam Schiff (D-28) addressing the 2019 California Democratic Party State Convention at the George R. Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco, June 1, 2019. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)
Schiff Leads Garvey By Virtually the Same Numbers In Latest Senate Poll
Polls also shows Biden with 55% of vote in state despite all other polls showing Biden with an average of only 49.5%
By Evan Symon, June 15, 2024 9:00 am
The Public Policy Institute of California released a new statewide survey on Thursday, finding that Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) continues to lead former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) in polls by virtually the same amount as previous polls, 62% to 37%.
Previously, only one Schiff-Garvey matchup poll had been conducted before the primary, as many polling groups had earlier banked on a November election where Schiff would be facing Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) instead and had done those polls instead. However, as it became apparent that Garvey would be the one facing off against Schiff this November, a UC Berkeley IGS poll came out in late February with such a matchup. According to that poll, Schiff led 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided.
Post-Primary there has also been only one poll: The April 2024 Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. This poll showed something of a significant gain for the Democrats, with 61% of voters in favor of Schiff, 37% in favor of Garvey, and only 2% undecided. These figures are roughly similar to the 2012 Senate race, where Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein defeated Republican candidate Elizabeth Emken 62.5% to 37.5%. However, experts told the Globe that PPIC polls had been not very reliable, especially when, in late February, they still had Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) ahead of Garvey for second place in the Primary when every other poll had Garvey at at least a double digit lead over her.
Nonetheless, the PPIC released another poll on Thursday, showing Schiff and Garvey with nearly identical results. All that has happened is that 1% of undecided voters moved to Schiff, with Schiff coming in with 62%, Garvey at 37%, and only 1% undecided. The poll also showed polarized voter bases with 93% of Democrats saying they would vote Schiff, 90% of Republicans saying they would vote Garvey, and independents nearly split with 53% favoring Schiff and 45% favoring Garvey, Overall, the PPIC poll goes somewhat against where voters generally are, showing higher than expected support of Schiff.
Those higher than expected numbers carry over into the Presidential poll in the same survey. Previous polls have shown President Joe Biden with roughly 50% of the California vote, Trump with roughly 30%, independents getting around 10%, and the rest going towards undecided. A February Emerson College poll found that Biden was sitting at 51% in California, with former President Donald Trump at 32%, and Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. at 6%. A recent Independent Center poll found that Biden is only at 48%, with Trump at 28%, and Kennedy at 12%. Even with Trump’s conviction last month, aggregate polls still have Biden at 49.5% in the Golden state as of Friday afternoon.
Unusual 1% bumps between the April and June PPIC polls
However, the PPIC poll on Thursday seemed to be off in their own orbit. According to the PPIC poll, Biden is currently at 55%, with Trump at 31% and someone else at 13%. This is curiously almost in line with the April poll, with Biden beating Trump 54%-31%. Also curiously, Biden’s one-point bump coincides with Schiff’s one point bump in the poll, with other candidates not changing as well.
“There is something off here,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Friday. “Democrats are expected to be ahead. of course. But the PPIC polls have shown radically different results than other polls. Biden and Trump both had major legal hurdles, with Trump being convicted on 34 counts and Biden’s son getting three felony gun charges. It’s been a wash in polls, with Biden staying steady at a 49.5% average in California despite all that. Now, out of the blue, he has 55% support?
“The same goes for the Senate race. Based on demographics, likely voters, and base voters, Garvey should have a bit more right now, while Schiff should have a bit less. But, unlike the Biden polls, the PPIC have been the only polls for the Senate race in months, and it shows Schiff more ahead than expected.
“We need to wait for the Berkeley IGS or another place to get a good lay of the land. The PPIC can tell us some things, but not on these hard numbers. Also, don’t you find it amazing that both polls had an exact 1% bump in both races for the Democratic candidate? That pretty much never happens, as races widely differ. So, just takeaway that the Democrats are still leading both races by at least 10% and wait on other polls to confirm.
“Like I said before, Garvey has some bright spots over Schiff, especially when it comes to Latino voters. And these polls just aren’t showing what everyone else has been finding.”
More polls are expected soon as candidate campaigning is expected to grow soon with the upcoming summer months.
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February 29, 2024
Time to send what you can to Garvey’s campaign. We don’t need any Bullschiff in the Senate.
I receive mailers from Garvey and sent some money, John The Patriot. But I don’t have much hope for him against Adam Scumbag Schiff. The Garvey campaign strategy is not clear to me. He is concentrating on LA and SD because of his baseball name – I understand this part. But he is also not responding to questions about President Trump – whereas, most Republicans are vocally and physically supporting the former president. If Garvey keeps Trump “at arms length” for some reason, he is not going to get down-ballot support from voters in November. Is this part of the CAGOP strategy? Dumb.
Good points, Raymond. I live in the Bay Area and I have not seen Garvey give any attention to us. He needs to show some support for Trump and I don’t think he has the best minds running his campaign.
Agree, John The Patriot. Garvey should be jumping in with both feet on the Trump “No Tax on Tips” policy. Look at the support he could be getting from restaurant workers in California; especially Latinos. It would totally counter punch any advantage the Newscum $20 minimum-wage would offer since this $20-wage is TAXED. Garvey also needs to ask for Trump’s endorsement and start campaigning with the former (and next) president.
Without a huge bankroll of campaign cash (presumably), it seems the Garvey campaign needs to be more strategic. If you think about it, most candidates wait until after Labor Day to come on strong with campaigning anyway. If the Garvey people are watching the campaign budget (hello, Silicon Valley billionaires!) the Garvey campaign may be strategically waiting until then for their push. We need to ignore the fake polls in the meantime. And practice patience. 🙂
Maybe also contact the Garvey campaign directly with your concerns? Who knows, maybe they will be receptive. But for all I know you have done that already. I’ve done that in the past and — who knows? —- it might help get them off their dime if that’s where they are.
I’m with you on this, John. Especially because the information in these polls is clearly not accurate. Polls such as PPIC are put out there with the intention of frustrating, deflating, and demoralizing voters. We’ve seen it over and over and over and over again.
Also would like to see the Silicon Valley crowd —– which has done an apparent turnaround in raising money for Trump to address their own interests —- understand that significant cash needs to be dumped into Garvey’s campaign also. That is, IF they want to start seeing some real changes that will stop the bleeding in their industry. Or has that been happening already and I missed it?
I agree with you, Showandtell. Silicon Valley needs to dump money into Garvey’s campaign. But Garvey needs to get some guts and start showing support for Trump and not worry that Bullschiff will call him a J6 supporter.
John, I too wish for Garvey to admit support for Trump with confidence and fearlessness. Maybe he will realize that he needs to do this as time goes on.
But (as they say) we shouldn’t let “the perfect be the enemy of the good.” We need to dump Schiff and elect a sensible Repub candidate (for a change), and I don’t see why this can’t be achieved with Steve Garvey. We need to ignore the fake polls that breed discouragement and apathy. Voters are looking for big change this year and Garvey has his own way and I think his way is perfectly fine as it builds and builds and grows on the public. He does need more campaign money, or so it seems, so there’s that. Those that are able to support him should do that by all means. But once that is fulfilled, if it is, there is nothing to prevent him from coming on strong as the campaign progresses, and it seems that it needs to strategically be a bit closer to the election. We’ll see……
Fake polls? No one in their right mind would vote for a pathological liar like bug-eyed, pencil-neck Schiff who looks like a creepy pedo?
No kidding
These days “polls” tell you what the ruling elite Cabal wants you to believe and have NO measure of actual voter sentiment. These polls tell the weak minded to vote for what the fictional majority wants.
Exactly, CW, and so well said.
Adam Schiff is a duck dead in the water. He only has the SEIU and teacher union votes. They are all going down big time in 2024. Bring on the debates, F2F – Schiff creeps everyone out in real time.
With you, Jaye.