Should Barbara Lee Even Be in California’s U.S. Senate Debate With Such Low Polling Numbers?

As the U.S. Senate debate approaches next week, there are ongoing questions on just how many candidates should take part. Some candidates, such as lawyer Eric Early (R) and anchorwoman Christina Pascucci (D), have claimed that they have been locked out of the debate, despite scoring between 6% and 2% in recent polls.

“The Media doesn’t have the right to shut out candidates from the first major debate in this critically important race, and manipulate the outcome of the election in the process,” said Early in a statement earlier this month. “The organizers’ proposed ‘debate’ is yet another attack on our democracy, by effectively telling California’s 40% undecided voters in a ‘jungle primary’ who they should and should not decide on.”

Pascucci added, “This isn’t a debate with the qualified candidates whom voters have chosen, it’s a coronation of Adam Schiff, the leader of California’s left wing Democrats. By excluding serious candidates with durable support, they are failing in their duty to provide civic discussion to the public. That undermines the democratic process.”

However, their complaints haven’t gained a lot of traction, especially with the top four candidates being ahead by a wide margin. Also not gaining traction is the question if Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), or former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) should be disclosed, as those three have scored high in recent polls.

Going back to November, Schiff has scored extremely high:

Meanwhile both Garvey and Porter have been in a dogfight for second place. With Garvey’s polls at:

And Porter’s polls being close:

Caught in the middle of this, and straddling the threshold for getting into the debate is Lee. While her numbers are better than Early, Pasucci, and businessman James Bradley (R), they also keep falling below 10%, actually hitting a low of 6% in an October poll:

With Lee being so far out, many are now asking why she should even be in the debate at all, as the other three are way ahead in support and are not ground down to single digits in terms of polling. A three way debate would make a lot of sense. For the GOP, they can focus on the two candidates  rather than be outstretched with three, and as for the Democrats, both Schiff and Porter would likely gain support if Lee was not to be in it and play spoiler, potentially  taking away enough support from Porter to give Garvey an easier way in. But there is a lot more at play.

The big three candidates and Lee

“Lee has been in this since nearly the beginning,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California. “She’s put a lot of time and money into this thing, as well as gave up her House seat to run. If they tried to not have her in the debate, her team would kick up a firestorm.”

Others pointed to her being a favored Democrat.

“She is the darling of the far left, who see Porter and Schiff as not liberal enough,” added Tricia Wu, an elections analyst in Alameda County. “Up here in Oakland and other very liberal enclaves, she is huge. Don’t underestimate her. Non-voter-wise, look at how much support she had. You asked about endorsements? She has more than Schiff does. And for the CADEM selected candidate, she was the leading one. She was beating out Schiff amongst delegates.”

“Unfortunately for her, she isn’t well known outside of here except for very liberal people. Many see her as too left in California, which is quite the thing to say. She is using her status as a woman of color to bring in supporters, and honestly, if they got rid of the only person of color from the debate, the only WOC, that wouldn’t look good to a lot of people either. Many thought that by falling where she is, they would pick her. But they never got that big oomph, and people have trouble with a lot of her beliefs or what she did in the past, like her lone vote to not use military force following September 11th back in 2001. She’s a liberal darling and, well, let me put it this way. She is making Democrats want to vote for Schiff and Porter instead of her.”

Despite many things going against Lee in staying, especially her aggregated polling putting her under 10%, she is still set to be a part of the four candidate debate next week. But, if she should continue to slip in the polls and doesn’t do a good job at the debate, it will be highly questionable if she will make the second debate.

“They would raise hell if they don’t get into the next debate,” added Lewis. “But it is a possibility. They just put too much into this to just give the race to Schiff or Porter at this point. They know they are keeping Porter behind a bit in the polls and helping Garvey in an indirect way. But they keep wanting that turnaround. With ballots going out soon, this is big. She needs to be in this debate to stay alive.”

The first Senate debate will be held in Los Angeles on January 23rd.