Steve Garvey Says He Is Now Within Single Digits of Schiff in US Senate Race

Senate candidate and former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) said in a Wake Up America Interview on Wednesday that he is now within single digits in the Senate race against Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), despite polls putting him around 20 points behind him.

Previous polls, mostly done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), have found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. In August, a PPIC poll found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%, with a poll by them last month showing it to be 63%-35%.

However, a UC Berkeley poll released in early August was shown to be far more realistic, with a large number of Californians still undecided in the race. In it, Schiff had only 53% of the vote, Garvey 33% and the rest being undecided. Without undecided voters, the tally was closer to Schiff 60%-Garvey 40%. An Emerson College poll in August also found that Schiff only gained a few more percentage points of votes, coming in to a 55% to 33% total. Without undecided voters the tally, with margin of error, was Schiff with 59%-61% and Garvey with 39%-41%.

Last month, the UC Berkeley poll found the Schiff-Garvey split being at 53%-36%. Originally projected to be around 60%-40%, the new changes showed that, with the 11% undecided vote split, it was closer to 58.5%-41.5%, potentially breaking the decades long 60%+ lock Democrats have had in Senate races. The debate on October 8th was also expected to shift things considerably.

However, post-debate polls were released last week from the PPIC and Activote, each showing that, minus the undecided vote which usually shifts closer to election day, Schiff is currently ahead 63%-37%. Current aggregate votes, even with the new polls, still have Schiff scoring lower 58%-35%, with around 7% undecided.

Despite this, Garvey said on Wednesday that “People know me, millions of people watched me for 20 years playing in Los Angeles and San Diego. They trust me. All of a sudden, a little over a year ago, I decided to run in this one-party state and to get people to stand up and get engaged in politics again, and we’ve done some significant things over this last year. We’re very optimistic. I wanted to accomplish registering more people than ever before in the last six months. We’ve done that in all 58 counties. I wanted to engage more really talented young men and young women to stand up and get involved in conservative politics in California.

“California Senate seats are arguably the most difficult seat because you start out about 25 points behind because of the disparity in registered voters. We started about 25 points behind, now we think we’re in single digits. And I get up every morning at this time fighting for the people of California. And they know that this guy that they went to work with a lot over the years is a true Californian, believes in them, believes in the people, and they’re standing up all over. And we’re excited about next Tuesday.”

However, just how accurate is his claim of being single digits behind Schiff?

“For him to be single digits behind Schiff right now, we need to take the best case scenario polls, apply the margin of error and then push all the undecided voters towards him,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Wednesday. “All together, that is roughly 11-12 points. So polling needs to be significantly off and Garvey needs to have a lot of undecided voters and independents on his side. Or he gets voters coming up from the woodwork who usually don’t vote, which the GOP often gets something of a boost from.

“Theoretically he can be within single digits, but pretty much everything needs to be going his way. It is true that Latinos and Asians have been saying more and more they are voting for him, and it is also true that he is likely to get a slight ‘Trump bump’ as Trump is doing slightly better in California now. But we’re talking, at most, a point there.

“I think him getting 40% is more realistic. We’ve all been talking about this 40%, and that’s because it is a clear mark that the GOP is improving in California. It’s been decades since a Republican Senate candidate got that much in an election. If Garvey does manage to get it within 10 points at 45%, it would be incredible. But based on everything we know, 40% is far more likely. Again, I’m not saying it isn’t possible, but everything has to go in his favor for that to happen.”