Steve Garvey at the 2024 U.S. Senate Candidate Forum (Photo: Evan Symon for California Globe)
Steve Garvey Says He Is Now Within Single Digits of Schiff in US Senate Race
Aggregate polls show that a 40% finish is far more likely
By Evan Symon, October 31, 2024 2:45 am
Senate candidate and former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) said in a Wake Up America Interview on Wednesday that he is now within single digits in the Senate race against Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), despite polls putting him around 20 points behind him.
Previous polls, mostly done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), have found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. In August, a PPIC poll found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%, with a poll by them last month showing it to be 63%-35%.
However, a UC Berkeley poll released in early August was shown to be far more realistic, with a large number of Californians still undecided in the race. In it, Schiff had only 53% of the vote, Garvey 33% and the rest being undecided. Without undecided voters, the tally was closer to Schiff 60%-Garvey 40%. An Emerson College poll in August also found that Schiff only gained a few more percentage points of votes, coming in to a 55% to 33% total. Without undecided voters the tally, with margin of error, was Schiff with 59%-61% and Garvey with 39%-41%.
Last month, the UC Berkeley poll found the Schiff-Garvey split being at 53%-36%. Originally projected to be around 60%-40%, the new changes showed that, with the 11% undecided vote split, it was closer to 58.5%-41.5%, potentially breaking the decades long 60%+ lock Democrats have had in Senate races. The debate on October 8th was also expected to shift things considerably.
However, post-debate polls were released last week from the PPIC and Activote, each showing that, minus the undecided vote which usually shifts closer to election day, Schiff is currently ahead 63%-37%. Current aggregate votes, even with the new polls, still have Schiff scoring lower 58%-35%, with around 7% undecided.
Despite this, Garvey said on Wednesday that “People know me, millions of people watched me for 20 years playing in Los Angeles and San Diego. They trust me. All of a sudden, a little over a year ago, I decided to run in this one-party state and to get people to stand up and get engaged in politics again, and we’ve done some significant things over this last year. We’re very optimistic. I wanted to accomplish registering more people than ever before in the last six months. We’ve done that in all 58 counties. I wanted to engage more really talented young men and young women to stand up and get involved in conservative politics in California.
“California Senate seats are arguably the most difficult seat because you start out about 25 points behind because of the disparity in registered voters. We started about 25 points behind, now we think we’re in single digits. And I get up every morning at this time fighting for the people of California. And they know that this guy that they went to work with a lot over the years is a true Californian, believes in them, believes in the people, and they’re standing up all over. And we’re excited about next Tuesday.”
However, just how accurate is his claim of being single digits behind Schiff?
“For him to be single digits behind Schiff right now, we need to take the best case scenario polls, apply the margin of error and then push all the undecided voters towards him,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Wednesday. “All together, that is roughly 11-12 points. So polling needs to be significantly off and Garvey needs to have a lot of undecided voters and independents on his side. Or he gets voters coming up from the woodwork who usually don’t vote, which the GOP often gets something of a boost from.
“Theoretically he can be within single digits, but pretty much everything needs to be going his way. It is true that Latinos and Asians have been saying more and more they are voting for him, and it is also true that he is likely to get a slight ‘Trump bump’ as Trump is doing slightly better in California now. But we’re talking, at most, a point there.
“I think him getting 40% is more realistic. We’ve all been talking about this 40%, and that’s because it is a clear mark that the GOP is improving in California. It’s been decades since a Republican Senate candidate got that much in an election. If Garvey does manage to get it within 10 points at 45%, it would be incredible. But based on everything we know, 40% is far more likely. Again, I’m not saying it isn’t possible, but everything has to go in his favor for that to happen.”
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September 20, 2024 -
Why not? Schiff will be truly horrible and with an open border, skyrocketing prices, high taxes, and chaos around the world, why on earth would people vote for the status quo? If President Trump wins an historic (don’t say landslide) victory, he may very well pull up many candidates on the ballot. The Latino vote alone may be the difference.
schifty schiff and his lying ass needs to go
Adam shift as a disaster he has lied the whole time he has been in office! California needs to get rid of this guy! the problem is Democrats felt like they’re voting for a baseball team they stick together no matter what and stick with their team no matter what! I hope Steve Garvey pulls it off in the 9th inning
Amen! Liar, Liar Grampers on fire!
That is not close enough. You have to be plus 5 due to voter fraud. Yes. Empty fields do vote. Why do you think they get ballots mailed to them?
In order to believe that Garvey is within single digits of Schiff, you would have to believe that Trump is within single digits of Harris in Communist-fornia. The majority of national polls have Harris-Trump at around 65-35. Even if Trump outperforms in California as he usually does nationally, it’s hard to imagine that the polls would be that far off. The Trump campaign would be pouring additional advertising in CA these last few days if the lead was only single digits. TDS is too entrenched in Crazifornia with it’s worst in history governor – Gruesome Newscum.
All things are possible, maybe Shiff will have a medical emergency such as a ruptured conscience, be rushed to a hospital and withdraw from the senate race.
I agree with you Raymond.
I have noticed that the CA GOP have ramped up their donation requests in the last week. Being the skeptic that I am, it could be a way to get last minute donations to fill their coffers for “next time”(sigh).. I voted for Garvey because Schiff has damaged this country and will lie when the facts are staring him down.
I also think the Garvey campaign was run horribly. For months I asked where is Garvey? I only saw him on the debate stage and heard him on a few radio shows.
I pray that I am soooo wrong!
Vote Garvey if you have not voted yet. Schiff is just despicable.
Yes, One Fed Up Cali Girl. I also voted for Garvey; and you make a good point about CA GOP….last minute fund raising.
Ditto. Poorly run campaign. We need him.
Vote Garvey!
Ditto. Poorly run campaign. We need him.
Vote Garvey!
The public generally likes and trusts Garvey unlike creepy shifty Schiff? There is no reason that Garvey shouldn’t be the front runner other than the RINO Uni-party establishment didn’t want him to be and purposely made sure he wasn’t?
Wait. Steve Garvey is running for Senate. Whoa.. who knew.
Schiff has repeatedly listed residences in two different states, California and Maryland, as his “principle residence”, but the law only allows one principle residence. Schiff is a crook.
Steve, we need a “slam.” You can do it. Shiff also a huge supporter for the Iran deal helping Iran to nuke up & have tons of money for their proxies that hurt us.
BTW, did you see the N Y Times tech article on how Israel used A I to get Iran’s no. one nukie – brain, shot dead by a robot, seated inside a junkie auto, hitting a moving target, making adjustments for shooting vibrations in the robots auto weapon and leaving the nukie’s wife unhurt! Zowie!!! Plus Israel has some surprises 4 Iran if they dare do some BS.
Why weren’t Shifty Shiff and Kamala / Obama charged with treason for the Illegal placement of Kamala Harris in the race? They did not have a primary, had no vote, just pushed Biden out without a 25th declaration, and bullied him into dropping out and putting Kamala in the running. We need Steve Garvey to help clean California’s nepotistic government. Clear out the Pelosie/ Newsome/ Getty /Soros power pack. What Happened to our Democratic Republic Talk about a monarchy! How many are related to each other in our system? We need Steve Garvey!
Why weren’t Shiff and Harris / Obama charged with treason for the Illegal placement of Kamala Harris in the race? They did not have a primary, had no vote, just pushed Biden out without a 25th declaration, and bullied him into dropping out and putting Kamala in the running. We need Steve Garvey to help clean California’s nepotistic government. Clear out the Pelosie/ Newsome/ Getty /Soros power pack. What Happened to our Democratic Republic Talk about a monarchy! How many are related to each other in our system? We need Steve Garvey!
Adam shift is so smooth and womanly. How could you resist?
California is beyond a DISGRACE. Shifty Schiff should be demolished by the Great Steve Garvey in this Election, and prison-bound, BUT California has been ruined by Schiff, Harris, Brown, “Newscum,” and even a pathetic RINO by the name of Arnold Schwarzenegger.
If there was any hope for this state, they would Vote for the former great #6 of the LA Dodgers, Mr. Garvey. Garvey LOVES the USA, and Shifty does NOT.
I support Garvey but he made a huge mistake not reaching out to Trump voters and getting a Trump endorsement.