The Race For GOP Endorsements for California’s 2024 U.S. Senate Candidates

Since the first candidates began declaring for the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California back in January, endorsements have been a key area of focus. For nearly a year, three big names have dominated endorsements – Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), and Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA). While other Democratic candidates like former Google executive Lexi Reese have been scoring big on fundraising or getting percentages in subsequent polls, endorsements have mainly come for those big three.

As it stands, Porter has had the most difficulty in garnering a large number of endorsements but has nonetheless has gotten big names such as Attorney General Rob Bonta, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and has even cut into Schiff’s usual stalwart celebrity endorsement base by getting actors like Elizabeth Banks and Adam Scott. Also, despite a lower number of endorsements, she has either come in first or second place in recent polls, which is enough for one of the two post-primary slots.

Schiff, meanwhile, has had a focus on getting members of the House, state legislators, and unions to back him. This includes the critical support of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and was rumored to have been the likely endorsement pick of former Senator Dianne Feinstein before her death. The focus has paid off, with Schiff, like Porter, always coming in at either one or two in polling.

As for Lee, she has had the most endorsements come in, including backing from most Mayors in the state like Karen Bass in LA and London Breed in San Francisco. However, a lot of endorsements haven’t translated to popular support. Many of her endorsements from lawmakers are from out of state, and she has been the only candidate so far to actually lose endorsements. She has been polling a distant third, with recent polls showing that Republican candidates like Eric Early and Steve Garvey are beginning to eclipse her.

With the Democrats going after any endorsements left untouched with primary election day now only a bit more than 4 months away, more focus has shifted to the GOP and where endorsements for those candidates will go. For months, GOP groups and lawmakers hesitated to support any because of GOP candidates not polling well and rumored candidates such as Garvey not formally entering the race.

But in recent months there has been a significant change. GOP groups, especially county GOP groups, have begun giving formal endorsements because of candidates like Early and James Bradley rising in recent polls, and Garvey officially entering the race. Last month, the Nevada, Yuba, and Santa Barbara County GOP all threw their support behind Early, with former LA County Supervisor Michael Antonovich doing so as well. This month, a further flurry of support from County Republican Party groups also backed Early, including Placer County, Yolo County, and on Thursday, Mendocino County.

“Communist China remains the top global threat to our nation’s freedoms, and there isn’t a more staunch China hawk in this race than Eric Early,” said Deb Hughes, Chair of the Mendocino County Republican Party. “Eric is the only candidate in this race who will stand up to the Chinese Communist Party to tackle their growing influence, both at home and abroad, and stop the invasion of dangerous Chinese fentanyl at our southern border.”

In response, Early stated, “I am honored to have the support of the Mendocino County Republican Party. While California Governor Newsom gets wined and dined by Chinese Communist President Xi and the CCP’s top leaders, Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee continue to turn a blind eye to China’s blatant anti-America positioning. The last thing Newsom and the others should be doing is taking lessons in abject tyranny from Xi. Our nation can ill afford to have any of my American Marxist opponents in the US Senate. The Chinese Communist Party is an enemy of the American people, and our country’s foreign policy must reflect this – our national security depends on it.”

More endorsements come in with about 4 months to go until the primary

However, with Garvey now in the race and Bradley still polling close to Lee, endorsements for GOP candidates may start to diverge. The final push for candidates in the months before the primary may also have top Republican lawmakers formally back a Senate candidate, which could give candidates enough of a boost to crack the Schiff-Porter wall in polling for a spot in the general election in November.

Election experts told the Globe on Thursday that the GOP may consolidate support or work on a strategy to rapidly gain momentum going into March in an effort to get a top spot.

“For the GOP, a divided Democratic party in this race is a good thing,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California. “There is a scenario in which Republicans could sneak in two candidates, but with [Senator Laphonza] Butler [D-CA] not running, that is now pretty much dead. But getting one of their people in is still very likely.

“Early and Bradley have been in a low-key dogfight for that top GOP spot for the last several months, but Garvey now in the race has upended that. Early is getting those endorsements still, but Garvey hasn’t made a big push just yet. Come November and December, when fundraising hits overdrive, then we may see those big jumps.”

“Whoever gets the top polling place by a significant margin, the smart thing to do would be to consolidate support within the party, grab a bunch of people on the fence, and come out strong in the primary. Democrats are split now, but the GOP always embarrasses the Democrats in jungle primaries when they get first place, because the media has to report that they did even though Democrats overall may have gotten more votes.”

“As for the election going to November, well, it will be an uphill battle for the GOP. Democrats have a lot of support and in recent Senate elections with GOP candidates, the Democratic candidate has won handedly. Realistically, they are likely going to have a comfortable victory next year. But if the focus is on California’s issues and current failings, the GOP could see a good turnout. Also, the top three Dem candidates have big flaws, and a strong GOP candidate there can take over the race if a big scandal erupts. Early has shown himself to be a long runner in state elections before and Garvey is a powerhouse in fundraising and has a support network of a lot of famous friends that could win people over.”

“This is why GOP candidates are giving it their all and why Democrats fear facing a Republican next year as much as someone from their own party. Democrats known than an all democratic race will cost a lot of money, but a Dem-GOP race brings that unknown factor into it. And these early endorsements will play a big part in figuring all that out. The question is though – will Early keep getting all these endorsements, or will Garvey and Bradley start to get some as well?”

New polls on the 2024 Senate race in California are to be released soon.