New U.S. Senate Poll Finds Adam Schiff Currently Leading Race With 55% Of The Vote

A new Emerson College poll released over the weekend found that Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) is still leading former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) with a 55% to 33% lead.

Previous polls, mostly done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), have found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. Their latest poll, released on last month, found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%.

However, a UC Berkeley poll released last month was shown to be far more realistic, with a large number of Californians still undecided in the race. In it, Schiff had only 53% of the vote, Garvey 33% and the rest being undecided. Without undecided voters, the tally was closer to Schiff 60%-Garvey 40%.

This led to the Emerson College poll over the weekend, which found that Schiff only gained a few more percentage points of votes, coming in to a 55% to 33% total. Without undecided voters the tally, with margin of error, was Schiff with 59%-61% and Garvey with 39%-41%. Despite a bump up for Schiff, Garvey is still within range of getting the 40% benchmark.

“In California, 55% support Democrat Adam Schiff, while 33% support Republican Steve Garvey. Thirteen percent are undecided,” said Emerson College in the poll analysis. “The economy is the top issue in California (39%), Florida (37%), and Ohio (49%), while immigration is the top issue for Texas voters (29%) closely followed by the economy (25%).”

Harris leads Trump in CA

The Emerson poll also included the Presidential election, showing that Vice President Kamala Harris is still leading former President Donald Trump in her home state, 60% to 36%. This almost mirrors the IGS results found last month 59% to 34%. Nationwide both candidates are in a dead heat, with swing states only being a few percentage points difference between the two.

Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, told the Globe on Monday that “Garvey hasn’t gone down despite the Harris train giving boosts to Democrats on tickets everywhere. Schiff did get a little more support, but not enough to stop Garvey from still having a good chance of getting 40%. Based on the Trump poll, he is getting at least 36%, and probably more.

“Also keep in mind that there are still roughly two months left until election day. A lot can happen. Vote from home ballots haven’t even come in to people yet. And the presidential debate hasn’t happened yet. There’s just a lot of factors still in play.

“And yeah, the GOP is still not anywhere near in pulling off a Senate or Presidential upset. But the numbers are an improvement over previous elections. If Garvey gets that 40%, that will be huge. As well Trump doing better than expected. For California, the big things are fundraisers giving last minute quick kicks of cash and a focus on House races, as there are many close ones in the state this year that could win the House for either side. That being said, Trump managed to close the huge gap in California by one point from the IGS poll. It by no mean makes this a close race, but it is something.

“The Emerson poll does show that Garvey isn’t giving up. Schiff thought it would just be a walk in the park, but he has had to come back to the state several times to go to rallies or fundraisers. He was really embarrassed when Garvey started outfundraising him, so if Garvey keeps up the pressure, Schiff is going to have to waste more resources in the race that could have gone elsewhere.”

More Senate polls are expected later this month.