Latest Garvey/Schiff Poll Shows Little Change

According to a new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll released on Thursday, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) ticked slightly upwards in polls while Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) stayed around the same in the U.S. Senate race, 35%-63%, with Schiff still at a large double digit lead.

Previous polls, mostly done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), have found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. Their latest poll, released on last month, found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%.

However, a UC Berkeley poll released last month was shown to be far more realistic, with a large number of Californians still undecided in the race. In it, Schiff had only 53% of the vote, Garvey 33% and the rest being undecided. Without undecided voters, the tally was closer to Schiff 60%-Garvey 40%. An Emerson College poll earlier this month also found that Schiff only gained a few more percentage points of votes, coming in to a 55% to 33% total. Without undecided voters the tally, with margin of error, was Schiff with 59%-61% and Garvey with 39%-41%.

The PPIC poll numbers released on Thursday continued to show only slight changes for both candidates compared to other PPIC votes. Like the other PPIC votes before it, Schiff and Garvey fell between the ranges they have been in for months, albeit with Garvey gaining a few more points over the last two months, while Schiff only saw a one point gain.

The poll also found that 59% of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of US Senate candidates this year, with notable variation across partisan groups. 68% Democrats said they were satisfied with the choices, as did 59% of Republicans and only 44% of independents.

Garvey 35%, Schiff 63%

PPIC Statewide Survey director Mark Baldassare added that “Democrat Adam Schiff leads Republican Steve Garvey by a wide margin in the US Senate race and majorities say they are satisfied with the choices of candidates.”

However, like other PPIC polls before it, there is no real room for undecided voters, with other polls clearly giving that as an option. So when compared to the Berkeley and Emerson polls, Garvey keeps nearly all his support, while Schiff sheds off around 10 points. Thus, the PPIC poll showed that things are generally the same. And, with Garvey seeing a point or two more, he is still within the 40% benchmark, as undecided voters tend to split closer to election day.

“PPIC polls never really give undecided as an option,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Thursday. “So, yeah, you are correct in, combining with the two previous polls where undecided votes are an option, Garvey is still likely to be close to 40%. I’d say 38% to 41% right now.

“Schiff is a bit more of a variable in that he has a lot more undecided voter support right now, which really equates to independent voters who can still switch over by election day. PPIC polls don’t really give that option while others do. Many have been waiting on the two to clash, or see how Schiff handles an election crisis. A lot of people are also waiting to see what Garvey does more about Trump.

“Trump threw down the gauntlet last week when he was in L.A., challenging Garvey to ask for his endorsement. But Garvey is still trying to get those independent voters, those undecided ones. Maybe even some DINOs. A Trump endorsement could endanger those, while also solidifying his base.

“But the polls show that, right now, it really is wait and see. Vote at home ballots have yet to arrive, so there is plenty of time. Many are waiting to see what Trump and Harris can do. Harris has yet to have a big scandal, and many voters are waiting on that. For Schiff and Garvey, some of their support is tied with the Presidential election. Should Harris keep this momentum going, Schiff will possibly get above 60%. But if Harris gets a nasty October surprise, or Trump manages to rack up more points, that can benefit Garvey.

“The poll today showed that, while there has been a little change, there hasn’t been a big jolt to really shake things up. That’s what the race needs, and right now, it’s sort of just plateauing.”

More polls are expected later this month.