The Top 10 Surprise Elections This Year In California

2024 was a wild year when it came to elections. A close presidential election that wound up not being close at all. The House and Senate going to the GOP. And in California, there were some genuine surprises. Some were because the race flipped an odd way, while others had been predicted wins but not by being so much. So, in a review of 2024, let’s take a look at those surprising elections in California. Starting with:

10. 47th District House Race

Congresswoman Katie Porter’s (D-CA) soon to be former seat pitted former Assemblyman and Orange County Republican Chairman Scott Baugh (R) against state Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County). For Baugh, he had everything going for him in the race it seemed. Porter was out of the race because she wanted to run a soon-to-be-doomed Senate effort. Min got a DUI. New reports showed that registered GOP members outnumbered the Dems. And Baugh managed to keep a three point lead going across all the polls heading into late October. For the GOP, it was looking like a final seat flip was happening in Orange County.

However, in the weeks leading up to the election, things began to change. Min galvanized the Asian American vote, and thanks to the national party kicking in money, poured funds into advertising. While registered Republicans shot up in the district, Min had more independent voters in his corner. Baugh soon went from a three point lead in mid-October to around dead even by election day. Min pretty much bought the election in the end, surprising many in the district who were expected Baugh. Instead Min won.

And that wasn’t the only surprise for Democrats in Orange County, as they also managed to flip the important…

9. 45th District House Race

This was another sneaky Democratic win. Attorney Derek Tran (D) faced off against Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-CA). While Steel was up in May in polls, by July it was a 47%-47% tie. Tran, aided by targeting Asian communities in the District and Vice President Kamala Harris’ goodwill going down ballot, was soon up, with him being two points ahead in September. However, that began to change when Tran then went from scandal to scandal, including lying about being able to speak fluent Vietnamese, false claims about his military record, and then the biggest roadblock so far, his legal career – such as representing a rapist for profit and defending someone who had put up a noose in his office.

But Tran had two aces up his sleeve. For one, he was very attuned to the Asian-American communities in the district, and managed to stealthily get quiet support from those communities. In particular, the Vietnamese-American community pushed their support towards him. But, like Min in the nearby 47th, the national party just showed up with a dump truck of money and Tran put it into ads. While initial votes on election day had Steel up to almost callable vote totals, Tran quickly won out with by-mail votes and, by late November, had the election called for him.

This election brought into question California’s practice of counting so many late votes, as accepting ballots after election day caused the GOP to lose two House seats in California. One was the 45th. The other was…

8. 13th District House Race

The Central California/Modesto area race brought back a rematch of 2022 – former State Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) against Congressman John Duarte (R-CA). The 2022 race in the district proved to be the closest House race in the nation, and Duarte managed to get a surprise victory in the district, defeating Gray by 564 votes.

With the 2024 race expected to be the same sort of close race, Gray decided to run again, this time on more “DINO” and moderate stances than in 2022, to appeal to centrist and undecided voters. Durate won debates and galvanized Latino support, but Gray chipped away at moderate voters. On election day Duarte was ahead, but over the next nearly month-long vote-counting adventure, Gray slowly came up and out ahead of Duarte. Again, late vote counting played this role. The closeness of the race, and California’s decision to continue counting votes that arrived up to 7 days past election day, caused the Republican National Committee (RNC) to file lawsuits against California. The 1 month to allow counting of curated and late votes also became a cause celebre, with even President elect Donald Trump weighing in on the issue.

In the end, Gray won by just 187 votes, flipping the vulnerable seat. But things were not all roses for the Democrats as there was also this little matter up in Oakland…

7. and 6. Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price Recall

The reasons for the recall elections of Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County DA Pamela Price were many. For Thao, she had hard time addressing crime and public safety concerns following her election in 2022, as well as having struggled to deal with homeless issues. Her controversy around the firing of the police chief LeRonne Armstrong, and her failure to keep the Oakland Athletics from relocating to Las Vegas played a part. Also not so great was the FBI raid on her home, and her subsequent outburst. While a recall election was only iffy at that time last year, the FBI action spurred more people to put the recall on the election. As for Price, well, high crime rates and a low prosecution race should tell you all you need to know there.

Both had been expected to stay in power, despite a growing number of successful recalls in the state, like San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin being ousted in 2022. But, with a worsening situation in the city, their disapproval rates shot up through the year. What seemed far fetched at the beginning of the year was now all but a done deal. To quote Vin Scully “In a year that has been so improbable, the impossible has happened.”

Over 60% of voters pushed them out of office. And while Oakland has a LONG way to go, especially with the mess of special elections coming up for the city in 2025, the unlikely recalls is pushing the city to do better. At least they have no more pro sports teams to lose.

5. Proposition 32

At the beginning of the year, polls showed that support for Prop 32, which would have increased the state minimum wage to $18 per hour beginning on January 1, 2025, was high. The state has had a long history of minimum wage bumps, and Prop 32 was looking no different. A USC/CSU Long Beach Poll in January found that the proposition was at 59% approval, with only 34% opposing. By early August, it was still on track to pass, with 52% of voters approving it and only 34% opposing it.

But then came a familiar foe to any high-cost issue – economics. A growing number of undecided voters and the rising number of job losses tied to the fast food minimum wage hike worrying many that a statewide raise could lead to even more losses. To the shock of supporters, many low-wage voters began going over, valuing a job with a slow but steady raise compared to a quick massive raise which could see them let go. And it was a stunner – Prop 32 failed, with 50.7% of voters going against it to 49.3%.

Union leaders who had been expecting an easy victory could not believe it. But the majority of Californians didn’t want massive jo losses like what happened with the fast food industry.

4. Proposition 36

Proposition 36 only makes the list because of just how much it won by.  Under Prop. 36, punishments for many drug and theft crimes will be increased once again, including making some current misdemeanor thefts back into felonies, lengthening felony sentences, and requiring that felony sentences be served in prison. In addition, it will also create a new treatment-focused court process for some drug possession crimes, and require that some felonies be served in prison.

Prop 36 passing was never in any doubt. Out of the gate, Prop. 36 proved to be very popular. Many retail and voter groups signed on to the initiative. Unusually, Prop. 36 also didn’t have the normal party and geography divides, with even typically liberal Los Angeles and San Francisco, both of which have seen rises in crime and “smash-and-grab” robberies in recent years, providing support. But support, spurred by high crime rates across the state and the lack of arrests and prosecution, skyrocketed. By October, polls showed a whopping 73% of Californians favoring Prop 36.

And those numbers held. Over 70% of voters approved a tougher on crime bill in California. The success spurred many voter groups to try and go for more tougher on crime ballot initiatives, panicking many progressives who had been at ease in instilling the laws without voter approval.

3. 36th Assembly District Race

Former Marine Jeff Gonzalez (R) formally defeated Coachella Valley Unified School District school board member Joey Acuna Jr. (D) last month for an Assembly seat. It may not seem like much, but the race quickly became indicative of the GOP’s state-level success in 2024.

The district, held by Democrats since 2008, seemed like a lock again this year for the Democrats, with Acuna hoping to fill the shoes of then-Assemblyman Eduardo Garcia. While Acuna was the early favorite, Gonzalez quickly roared back in the final months thanks to a continued focus on public safety and education. President-elect Donald Trump’s visit to Coachella in October also proved to galvanize voters in the district to vote GOP down the ballot -which included Gonzalez. It was a narrow victory, with under 52% of the vote going for Gonzalez, but a victory nonetheless.

While the GOP has flipped Assembly District seats before, Gonzalez now holds the distinction of becoming the first Republican since 1992 to pick up an Assembly seat for his party in the state during a Presidential election year. The fact the Democrats have held the area since 2008 makes the feat all the more impressive to the party.

Democrats were also shocked. They lost seats in the Assembly and the Senate. Oh wait, the Senate too? About that…

2. 37th Senate District Race

According to Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones (R-San Diego), the biggest race of the night was the 37th District race, which brought the number of GOP Senators in Sacramento back up to double digits for the first time in years.

Assemblyman Dr. Steven Choi (R-Irvine) ousted incumbent Democrat Senator Josh Newman (D-Fullerton) with over a 6,200 vote margin in the Orange County-centric 37th Senate District. Newman, who had previously been recalled in 2018 over his gas tax vote yet be reelected back in in 2020, now holds another dubious distinction: He is now the first incumbent Democrat in 44 years to have lost to a Republican candidate in a Presidential election year. The last time the GOP flipped a state Senate seat in a presidential year had been Republican John T. Doolittle defeated Democrat State Senator Albert S. Rodda in 1980.

It wasn’t the only big GOP Senate victory. For example, in the 23rd District, former Republican Assemblywoman Suzette Valladares (R-Santa Clarita) was elected to replace outgoing Senator Scott Wilk (R-Santa Clarita) with nearly a 17,000 vote margin. But the 37th flipped a seat, moving the needle from 8 Senate seats held by the GOP in 2022 to 10 this coming session. For the GOP, it was a pleasant surprise. For the Democrats, well, it didn’t exactly help matters.

1. U.S. Presidential Race

Yes, Harris was always going to win California this year. Trump didn’t win the state. He won the overall election, but not the state.

So why is this the biggest surprise this year? Well, it’s because how much GOP candidates have come back at the national level in California.  With vote totals now in, Trump received 38.3%, or 6.08 million votes, to Harris’ 58.5%, or 9.2 million votes. It seems like a big gap, until you look at previous elections. Trump had his best result in the Golden state ever in 2024, putting him above his 34% performance in California in 2020 and well above the 31% he got in California against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He also surpassed Mitt Romney’s 37% total in 2012, as well as McCain’s 37% in 2008. To find the last time a GOP candidate did better than Trump, one would have to go back to the 2004 election, when George Bush got 44% of the vote in California. This also puts him only 3 points behind Bush’s 2000 election performance in California with 41% of the vote and on par with how well Bob Dole did in 1996, when he also got 38%.

Backlash against Biden, Harris not having a lot of time to campaign, Latino voters going to the GOP – there’s a lot of reasons for it. But, in the end, Trump had an amazing California total. Harris, even with home state advantage, couldn’t draw in as many voters as Biden or Clinton, both East Coasters, could.

Overall, the GOP seemed to have done better than the Democrats in California this year. 2025 will largely be a breather year when it comes to elections, although some special elections and local elections in November are still going to occur. If anything, the 2024 elections were a surprise in many ways.