Trump Shows Slight Gains in California Despite Still Polling Behind Harris

According to a new Emerson poll released on Wednesday, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have remained in a 59%-35% lock in California, with Trump going up slightly from previous polls.

Previous polls before Harris became the presumptive nominee on the ticket showed a much closer race in California. While a Democratic victory was never in doubt in California, with Biden always keeping a around a 20+ point lead, polls in June and July began projecting one of the closest races for California between a Democrat and Republican in decades. Biden’s poor debate performance, questions over his health, growing calls for him to drop out of the race, and Trump’s assassination attempt brought a shift in California and nationwide. The last polls with Biden on the ticket in California had him only with 18 and 17 point leads, dropping a point in the polls in California every 5-7 days. Had that rate continued, California could have gone down a shade of blue for the first time since the 90’s.

However, Biden dropped out, leading to Harris as the new nominee. Armed with a California background and keeping the momentum going with a new VP pick, Harris rapidly gained ground on Trump. Nationally, Trump went from several points ahead of Biden, to, on aggregate, three points behind Harris. In California, with Harris at home state advantage, it was even more staggering. By August, Harris was leading Trump 59% to 34%, with Harris up 60% to 34% by September following the second Presidential debate.

In the last month, things took another turn. With the Harris nomination honeymoon over and debate momentum waning, Harris began to fall in most states, including California. The UC Berkeley IGS poll at the beginning of the month was showing Harris to be as low as 57%. However, this evened out on Wednesday, with the Emerson poll showing the latest California numbers at 59% Harris and 35% Trump, with Trump overall slightly improving thanks in part to recent gains with the Latino vote. Overall, Trump is also one point high than he was in early August when Harris was still amidst her early entrance bump in support.

Nationally, Harris is still ahead by a few points over Trump, with that lead tightening in the last month, as reflected by Trump moving up by a point in the state. With it based on projected electoral votes, it is a dead heat, with California still a sure thing for Harris as she is still 24 points ahead in the state.

Trump likely to have best GOP finish in state since 2004

The Emerson poll also included where undecided voters are leaning, putting the total at Harris 61% and Trump 37%. Should those figures hold, Trump is likely to have his best result in the Golden state yet, putting him above his 34% performance in California in 2020 and well above his 31% he got in California against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He could also still surpass Mitt Romney’s 37% total he got in the state in 2012, as well as McCain’s 37% in 2008, meaning Trump’s 2024 final percentage in California is on track to be the highest percentage for a Republican since 2004, when George Bush got 44% of the vote in California.

“Based on how he has been rising, as well as that Coachella visit getting him a surprising amount of goodwill, it’s likely Trump will get 37% or more in California,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Wednesday. “He is still nowhere close to winning the state. Even a second half October Harris scandal probably wouldn’t jostle Harris out of winning the state. But the numbers are turning around.

“Clinton in 2016, she got everyone excited in California, at least amongst Democrats. 2020, it was a big push for Biden to not let Trump have a second term. 2024, that sentiment is there plus Harris getting her home state. Yet look at the numbers. This is going to be his best year in California yet. And if the Democrats had picked someone besides Harris and she didn’t have that added California support, Trump could have been scratching at 40% in the state right now.

“Trump’s gains amongst Latinos and even amongst black voters is also helping this surge. Nationally, a few months ago, Harris probably was more likely to win, and that is gone now. And in California a few months ago, Trump was on the way to get between his 2016 and 2020 totals here, and now look where it is.”

Final presidential polls for California will likely come in in early November.